A return to Kayfabe Capital Towers this week after an extended hiatus, with the US presidential cycle having kicked off post-Labor Day weekend. Suffering through the idea of the current two leading candidates had me reflecting upon the first presidential election of my ‘adult’ life, which was President George HW Bush’s reelection attempt in 1992.
I’m not sure how the current setup will be incumbent narrative friendly… given Eric Basmajian’s work showing unemployment likely on course with other recessions post 3m10y inversion. We may still see u3 rise before the end of this year, and it’s hard to Kayfabe that away let alone for another 10 months. U1 just had a dramatic upswing and I think u2 and u3 will follow. Europe and China are now falling into abyss, the rest of the world looking over. Now sure, you might be able to spin it as a global phenomenon, but I think the more likely scenario is another “It’s the economy, stupid.” When people start losing jobs, they blame the President (and somehow the Fed gets away … Volcker, Greenspan, and Bernanke are all, for the most part, revered!)
Great to read another article! Thank you!
I’m not sure how the current setup will be incumbent narrative friendly… given Eric Basmajian’s work showing unemployment likely on course with other recessions post 3m10y inversion. We may still see u3 rise before the end of this year, and it’s hard to Kayfabe that away let alone for another 10 months. U1 just had a dramatic upswing and I think u2 and u3 will follow. Europe and China are now falling into abyss, the rest of the world looking over. Now sure, you might be able to spin it as a global phenomenon, but I think the more likely scenario is another “It’s the economy, stupid.” When people start losing jobs, they blame the President (and somehow the Fed gets away … Volcker, Greenspan, and Bernanke are all, for the most part, revered!)
Great analysis as usual. Always enjoy reading your work!
Enjoying reading your work as usual Kayfabe!