While Twitter can be a hellscape of trolls and a blackhole of time-wasting, I have been fortunate enough to meet (virtually!) a lot of really smart, experienced, and generous people. When people I have grown to respect layout analyses contrary to my own and approach things from a different perspective, it causes me to revisit and reconsider.
Great post Sir Kayfabe 👍🏻 Would just note the reasons why deficits rose in the 1970s was to respond to recession. This time it seems in anticipation. Just a thought
Love Florian, but thought his latest post was a hodgepodge of anything bullish to justify the market's YTD strength (e.g., viewing IOBR as economically stimulative is a head scratcher). It's obviously great that several macro bears who missed the strong fiscal component now see it, but to make money in the market you have to skate where the puck is going, not do a post-mortem of what happened.
The US fiscal impulse is going from +6% YoY in June annualized to -3% YoY by year-end. The USD will stay bid as the US deficit remains high and inflation sticky; liquidity continues to be pulled from the market; rate hikes continue to work their way through the economy; SLOOS contracts, etc. Could we get ISM above 50 for a month or two? Sure, but if anything that will really only have a pronounced impact on oil given the massive amount of supply Saudi has taken offline.
Great post Sir Kayfabe 👍🏻 Would just note the reasons why deficits rose in the 1970s was to respond to recession. This time it seems in anticipation. Just a thought
Love Florian, but thought his latest post was a hodgepodge of anything bullish to justify the market's YTD strength (e.g., viewing IOBR as economically stimulative is a head scratcher). It's obviously great that several macro bears who missed the strong fiscal component now see it, but to make money in the market you have to skate where the puck is going, not do a post-mortem of what happened.
The US fiscal impulse is going from +6% YoY in June annualized to -3% YoY by year-end. The USD will stay bid as the US deficit remains high and inflation sticky; liquidity continues to be pulled from the market; rate hikes continue to work their way through the economy; SLOOS contracts, etc. Could we get ISM above 50 for a month or two? Sure, but if anything that will really only have a pronounced impact on oil given the massive amount of supply Saudi has taken offline.
Great post as always.
Quacks & flat Earthers pulling at the economic levers is the real world equivalent of 10,000 monkeys at typewriters.
A recommended history of mileposts on the road to currency destruction and a lowered standard of living is
https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640#