It's a fascinating moment in markets, and a fascinating time to be able to follow so many smart people publishing their thoughts. I remain most convinced by the arguments (like the one presented here) that a recession is, indeed, on the way and there will not be a soft landing. What this actually means for asset prices is another question. Will falling rates (after the recession hits) buoy multiples and counteract declines due to earnings? What will central bank reaction functions look like? How will fiscal policy play in?
Before the FED and government in general thought they could manage THE economy inventories were a prime indicator of recessions. All signals skewed due to interventionist policies. Business cycle not repealed but all focus now on FED.
Kayfab. What are your thoughts on if and when the recession comes, it is the most predicted one in quite awhlie? Bloomberg has it at 100%. It seems companies have prepared or are preparing for it so what happens with the reflexivity if we do get it. Also markets people can argue whether its priced or not for severity of a recession but it seems the big R has been overweight for 3 q’s now until the recent soft landing reaction in markets
It's a fascinating moment in markets, and a fascinating time to be able to follow so many smart people publishing their thoughts. I remain most convinced by the arguments (like the one presented here) that a recession is, indeed, on the way and there will not be a soft landing. What this actually means for asset prices is another question. Will falling rates (after the recession hits) buoy multiples and counteract declines due to earnings? What will central bank reaction functions look like? How will fiscal policy play in?
Great post 💪🏻
Before the FED and government in general thought they could manage THE economy inventories were a prime indicator of recessions. All signals skewed due to interventionist policies. Business cycle not repealed but all focus now on FED.
👏👏👏
Kayfab. What are your thoughts on if and when the recession comes, it is the most predicted one in quite awhlie? Bloomberg has it at 100%. It seems companies have prepared or are preparing for it so what happens with the reflexivity if we do get it. Also markets people can argue whether its priced or not for severity of a recession but it seems the big R has been overweight for 3 q’s now until the recent soft landing reaction in markets