I have had some writing fatigue recently, as the evolution of life developments has conspired with increasing realized market volatility to raise my excuse-making threshold for not sitting down and typing. The return this week is to say something relatively simple: I believe we have reached the Kayfabe Capital Singularity.
Your writing lead me to Eric Basmajian, ECRI, Lacy Hunt, Neely Tamminga, Michael Kantrowitz, Michael Green, Florian Kronawitter, and so many others that help me think while learning from ample data how business cycles, reflexivity, complex adaptive systems, and markets really work. I have my own similar “circle of trust” now (and I don’t have to agree with them fully either, esp if they make me think!). I am in your debt.
Eric Basmajian’s recent research showing how the two year backlogs in multi family housing construction and auto manufacturing all due to Covid were particularly important in the delay of the fall in cyclical employment was a great piece of work. We are finally seeing that turn and with it the fall in cyclical employment with the rest of the avalanche beginning to start. I agree we are at an inflection point.
And while there are great conservative options available now, for those who don’t mind the risk and volatility, LEAPS puts still seem so attractive these days.
I have to ask, when you were set up for the GFC, how did you choose to position for it? I expect I will also have a family dinner after the avalanche with a similar feeling of dread even if I had been correct in my positioning.
Thank you for leading me on this journey, even if what is coming will be difficult.
The QQQ ice bath lady beating us all in her qqq's. Nice work.
Ken
Thank you Ken - the options mania is making the 1999 IPO mania look like a wuss!
Your writing lead me to Eric Basmajian, ECRI, Lacy Hunt, Neely Tamminga, Michael Kantrowitz, Michael Green, Florian Kronawitter, and so many others that help me think while learning from ample data how business cycles, reflexivity, complex adaptive systems, and markets really work. I have my own similar “circle of trust” now (and I don’t have to agree with them fully either, esp if they make me think!). I am in your debt.
Eric Basmajian’s recent research showing how the two year backlogs in multi family housing construction and auto manufacturing all due to Covid were particularly important in the delay of the fall in cyclical employment was a great piece of work. We are finally seeing that turn and with it the fall in cyclical employment with the rest of the avalanche beginning to start. I agree we are at an inflection point.
And while there are great conservative options available now, for those who don’t mind the risk and volatility, LEAPS puts still seem so attractive these days.
I have to ask, when you were set up for the GFC, how did you choose to position for it? I expect I will also have a family dinner after the avalanche with a similar feeling of dread even if I had been correct in my positioning.
Thank you for leading me on this journey, even if what is coming will be difficult.